The upshot: I struggle to imagine a process whereby an obscure English children’s game somehow inspired gestural customs in Georgia, Egypt, Russia, and Iran within less than a century. It seems more reasonable to me that these customs might instead originate in an ancient Mediterranean tradition of apotropaic magic, or charms intended to combat bad luck.
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The Met Office estimates that at current levels of global warming, wet winters like 2023/24 have gone from being once in 80-year events to once in 20 - and with further warming this could become even more frequent.
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